GW13 Kneejerk Check

Each week we track how the biggest transfer swings perform in the game that follows. Last time we looked at GW12 points through the lens of GW11 transfers. This week it's GW13's turn: who managers moved for in GW12, and how those players actually scored.

Overall Picture

GW13 delivered a brutal lesson in FPL volatility: the heroes of GW12 became the villains of GW13. Eze (20 points in GW12), Muñoz (14 points), and Rogers (15 points) saw massive transfer inflows totaling over 1.4 million managers jumping on board—only to crash to 2, 1, and 3 points respectively. Meanwhile, Thiago's 770k transfers delivered 13 points, while Thiaw's tiny 4k transfers scored a massive 16 points.

• The Reversal Curse: Eze (+547,432) scored 20 points in GW12, leading to massive transfers in. GW13: 2 points—a brutal reversal that punished those who chased last week's points.
• The Bandwagon Success: Thiago (+769,991) was the most transferred-in player of GW12. GW13: 13 points—a successful transfer.
• The Sleeper Hero: Thiaw (+4,079) saw minimal transfer interest but delivered 16 points—the highest of GW13. A perfect example of differential value.
• More Reversals: Muñoz (+402,138) scored 14 points in GW12, then 1 point in GW13. Rogers (+459,356) scored 15 points in GW12, then 3 points in GW13.
• The Regretful Sells: L.Miley (-10,743), De Cuyper (-7,105), and Gakpo (-117,528) were all sold but scored 15, 15, and 14 points respectively—classic bench points pain.
• Good Sells: Gabriel (-892,193) was the heaviest exit and delivered 0 points, validating the sell. Semenyo (-671,472) and João Pedro (-512,643) both justified their exits with 1 point each.

The Reversal Curse

GW13 saw one of the most brutal reversals in recent FPL memory. Three high-scoring players from GW12—Eze (20 points), Muñoz (14 points), and Rogers (15 points)—attracted over 1.4 million combined transfers in for GW13. The result? A combined 6 points total (2, 1, and 3 points respectively).

This pattern highlights a critical FPL lesson: chasing last week's points is often a trap. Players who score big hauls frequently regress to the mean, especially when fixture difficulty changes or when opponents adjust their tactics. The managers who bought these players after their big GW12 hauls learned this lesson the hard way.

Midfielders

Eze (ARS, +547,432): The story of the week. Scored 20 points in GW12 (the highest of the gameweek), leading to massive transfers in. GW13: 2 points—a brutal reversal that punished those who chased last week's points. This perfectly illustrates the danger of reactive transfers.

Rogers (AVL, +459,356): Another GW12 hero (15 points) who saw massive transfers in. GW13: 3 points—another victim of the reversal curse. Managers who jumped on after his big haul were left disappointed.

Foden (MCI, +71,963): Moderate transfers in after a 2-point GW12. GW13: 15 points—a successful differential play that rewarded those who looked beyond recent form.

Doku (MCI, +210,663): Heavy inflows after a 2-point GW12. GW13: 2 points—continuing the pattern of disappointment for popular transfer targets.

Kudus (TOT, -109,848): Heavy outflows after a 2-point GW12. GW13: 8 points—a regretful sell for those who moved him on, though he remains a volatile asset.

L.Miley (NEW, -10,743): Moderate outflows after a 0-point GW12. GW13: 15 points—a regretful sell for those who moved him on, though low ownership meant minimal impact.

Gakpo (LIV, -117,528): Heavy outflows after a 2-point GW12. GW13: 14 points—a classic case of bench points pain for those who sold him. Sometimes holding through a bad week pays off.

Semenyo (BOU, -671,472): The second-heaviest exit of GW12 after confirmation he didn't make the squad. GW13: 1 point—validating the sell decision for managers who moved on.

Forwards

Thiago (BRE, +769,991): The most transferred-in player of GW12 after a 4-point performance. GW13: 13 points—a successful transfer.

João Pedro (CHE, -512,643): Heavy outflows after a 1-point GW12. GW13: 1 point—another justified sell, confirming managers made the right call.

Defenders

Muñoz (CRY, +402,138): Scored 14 points in GW12, leading to massive transfers in. GW13: 1 point—another brutal reversal that punished those who chased last week's points. This defender's volatility perfectly illustrates the danger of reactive transfers.

J.Timber (ARS, +282,150): Significant transfers in after a 5-point GW12. GW13: 2 points—a disappointing return for such heavy transfer volume.

Gabriel (ARS, -892,193): The heaviest exit of GW12 due to injury concerns. GW13: 0 points—validating the community's decision to move on. Sometimes the most popular sells are the right calls.

Thiaw (NEW, +4,079): Minimal transfer interest but delivered 16 points—the highest score of GW13. A perfect example of differential value and the power of looking beyond ownership percentages.

De Cuyper (BHA, -7,105): Moderate outflows after a 1-point GW12. GW13: 15 points—a massive regretful sell for those who moved him on.

O'Reilly (MCI, +256,389): Significant transfers in (+256,389) after a 1-point GW12. GW13: 4 points—another disappointing return for such heavy transfer volume.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper transfers were relatively quiet this week, with no major swings that significantly impacted GW13 performance.

The Stat That Sums It Up

Three high-scoring players from GW12—Eze (20 points), Muñoz (14 points), and Rogers (15 points)—attracted over 1.4 million combined transfers in for GW13. The result? A combined 6 points total (2, 1, and 3 points respectively). Meanwhile, Thiago's 770k transfers delivered 13 points. Sometimes the crowd gets it right, but not always.

Analysis based on GW12 transfer data and GW13 performance. Data covers key transfer decisions ranging from 770k inflows (Thiago) to 892k outflows (Gabriel). The reversal curse struck hard this week, with GW12's heroes becoming GW13's villains.