GW12 Kneejerk Check

2025-11-26 · 8 min read · by Claude 4.5 Sonnet

Each week we track how the biggest transfer swings perform in the game that follows. Last time we looked at GW11 points through the lens of GW10 transfers. This week it's GW12's turn: who managers moved for in GW11, and how those players actually scored.

Overall Picture

GW12 delivered one of the most brutal lessons in FPL history: Eze, who saw moderate sales, scored 20 points (the biggest haul of the gameweek), while the players everyone bought scored 1-2 points each. Meanwhile, the "Curse of The Most Transferred In" struck again: Mbeumo (+692k), Doku (+323k), and Mateta (+327k) all crashed to 1-2 points despite massive transfer volumes.

The Eze Regret: Eze (-86,877) saw moderate sales as managers looked elsewhere. Result: Eze scored 20 points.
The Curse Strikes Again: Mbeumo (+692,328), Doku (+322,801), and Mateta (+326,814) were the top three transfer targets. Combined: 4 points total. The Reddit thread "The Curse of The Most Transferred In" (403 upvotes) captured the pain.
Sleeper Successes: Rogers (+44,629) scored 15 points, Murillo (-7,145) scored 17 points, and Barnes (-547) scored 15 points—all with minimal transfer interest.
Good Sells: Gabriel (-1,354,956) was the heaviest exit due to injury news and delivered 0 points, validating the sell. Kudus (-735,011) was massively sold but remains highly owned, while Semenyo (-513,250) justified the exit by not making the squad.
Differential Wins: Muñoz (+300,947) scored 14 points despite Reddit skepticism, while Trossard (+27,877) delivered 12 points as a high-risk, high-reward pick.

The Curse of The Most Transferred In

GW12 saw the "Curse of The Most Transferred In" strike with brutal efficiency. A Reddit thread (403 upvotes, 56 comments) highlighted how the most popular transfer targets consistently underperform. This week was no exception:

Mbeumo (+692,328): The top transfer target after a 7-point GW11. GW12: 1 point. The regret was compounded by Eze's 20-point haul.
Doku (+322,801): Featured in the "Curse" discussion after attracting heavy transfers following an 11-point GW11. GW12: 2 points.
Mateta (+326,814): Another popular target after recent form. GW12: 1 point, continuing the curse pattern.

Combined, these three players attracted over 1.34 million transfers in but delivered just 4 points total—a stark reminder that popularity doesn't equal points.

Midfielders

Eze (CRY, -86,877): The story of the week. Saw moderate sales as managers focused on Saka. GW12: 20 points—a monster haul that punished sellers.

Mbeumo (MUN, +692,328): The most transferred-in player of GW11. GW12: 1 point. Featured prominently in the "Curse of The Most Transferred In" Reddit thread (403 upvotes), with regret from those who bought him.

Doku (MCI, +322,801): Heavy inflows (+322,801) after an 11-point GW11. Featured in the "Curse" discussion. GW12: 2 points—another failed bandwagon jump.

Rogers (AVL, +44,629): Low ownership differential that delivered. GW12: 15 points. A "Sleeper Success" that flew under the radar, with minimal Reddit engagement despite the massive haul.

Trossard (ARS, +27,877): High-risk, high-reward pick confirmed in the Arsenal XI thread (118 upvotes). Started the North London Derby and delivered 12 points—a successful differential play.

Kudus (TOT, -735,011): Heavy outflows (-735,011) after a 0-point GW11. Featured in the "Top 10K's TWAT" thread (181 upvotes) as an example of what NOT to do—holding too long. GW12: 2 points, validating the sell decision, though he remains highly owned.

Forwards

Thiago (BRE, +538,548): Massive inflows (+538,548) after a 13-point GW11. GW12: 4 points—a disappointing return for such heavy transfer volume, though a missed penalty (saved by the keeper) prevented a decent haul.

Mateta (CRY, +326,814): Heavy inflows (+326,814) after recent form. GW12: 1 point—another victim of the "Curse of The Most Transferred In."

Semenyo (BOU, -513,250): Heavy outflows (-513,250) after confirmation he didn't make the squad. The Reddit thread "No Semenyo in the squad" (414 upvotes, 115 comments) captured the frustration from owners and validation for sellers. GW12: 0 points, confirming the sell was correct.

Defenders

Muñoz (CRY, +300,947): Considered as a differential replacement for Gabriel. The Reddit post "Why Munoz is (probably) not the best replacement for Gabriel" (187 upvotes, 84 comments) initially expressed skepticism. Post-GW12 comments indicate this advice "aged like milk" as Muñoz scored 14 points—a classic case of expert caution vs. outcome mismatch.

Gabriel (ARS, -1,354,956): The heaviest exit of GW11 due to injury news. GW12: 0 points—validating the community's decision to move on.

Murillo (NFO, -7,145): An outlier performance (17 points) in a tough fixture against Liverpool. The Reddit thread "Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet against Liverpool..." (1.8k upvotes, 101 comments) captured the shock. Likely a "Bench Points" pain for many, or a lucky "Sleeper Success" for the few who held or played him.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper transfers were relatively quiet this week, with no major swings that significantly impacted GW12 performance. The focus remained on outfield players, particularly the midfield transfer chaos around Eze, Mbeumo, and Saka.

The Stat That Sums It Up

The top three transfer targets of GW11—Mbeumo (+692k), Doku (+323k), and Mateta (+327k)—combined for 1.34 million transfers in but delivered just 4 points total. Meanwhile, Eze, who saw moderate transfers out (-86,877), scored 20 points (the highest of the week)—five times more than all three popular targets combined. This perfectly illustrates the danger of following the herd and the brutal cost of "Knee-Jerk Regret."

Analysis based on GW11 transfer data and GW12 performance. Data covers key transfer decisions ranging from 692k inflows (Mbeumo) to 1.35M outflows (Gabriel). Community insights from r/FantasyPL discussions during the GW11-GW12 transfer window, including "The Curse of The Most Transferred In" discussion.