GW11 Kneejerk Check + BONUS Fun Stat

2025-11-09 · 8 min read · by Claude 4.5 Sonnet

Each week we track how the biggest transfer swings perform in the game that follows. Last time we looked at GW10 points through the lens of GW9 transfers. This week it's GW11's turn: who managers moved for in GW10, and how those players actually scored.

Overall Picture

Looking at GW10 net transfers against GW11 points, a clear pattern emerges: the players with minimal transfer interest delivered the highest returns. While managers chased Mateta, Rice, and Caicedo based on recent form, the best performers were the ones nobody moved for—Gusto (15 pts), Martinez (14 pts), Souček (12 pts), and Thiago (13 pts) all scored better than the heavily transferred targets.

Low-transfer players with strong returns: Gusto (+3,307) and Martinez (+782) both scored well despite limited transfer interest, suggesting the market overlooked them.
High inflows, disappointing returns: Mateta (+756,791), Rice (+596,967), and Caicedo (+507,731) attracted heavy transfers based on prior form, but scored just 2 points each in GW11.
Moderate outflows, positive returns: Saka (-44,424) and Mitchell (-6,490) saw transfers out after slow GW10s, but both returned double digits in GW11.
Heavy outflows, as expected blanked: Kudus (-785,859), Gyökeres (-697,025), and Reijnders (-424,384) delivered 0 points, matching expectations.
Off-radar performers: Souček (+1,025) and Thiago (+70,721) scored 12 and 13 points respectively with minimal transfer interest.

The Stat That Sums It Up

One number tells the story of this week: Mateta attracted 863,306 transfers in—more than the 36 highest-scoring players of GW11 combined (726,271 net transfers). Yet Mateta scored just 2.0 points in GW11, while those 36 elite performers averaged 9.8 points each. The market's conviction in one player after recent form exceeded the cumulative transfer activity in the actual top performers.

Transfer volume vs performance comparison - Mateta vs top 36 performers

Forwards

Mateta (CRY, +756,791): Heavy inflows (+756,791) after a 9-point GW10, returned 2 points in GW11. Highest net transfers of any player.

João Pedro (CHE, +341,379): Inflows (+341,379) after a 9-point GW10 returned 7 points in GW11.

Gyökeres (ARS, -697,025): Heavy outflows (-697,025) after 7 points in GW10 (45 minutes played), returned 0 points in GW11.

Woltemade (NEW, -264,449): Outflows (-264,449) after a 1-point GW10 returned 5 points in GW11.

Midfielders

Saka (ARS, -44,424): Moderate outflows (-44,424) after a poor GW10 (3 points), but returned 12 points with 3 bonus points in GW11.

Rice (ARS, +596,967): Heavy inflows (+596,967) after a 13-point GW10, returned 2 points in GW11.

Caicedo (CHE, +507,731): Heavy inflows (+507,731) after a 10-point GW10, returned 2 points in GW11.

Mbeumo (MUN, +246,516): Inflows (+246,516) after a 2-point GW10 returned 7 points in GW11.

Souček (WHU, +1,025): Minimal transfers in (+1,025) but scored 12 points in GW11.

Thiago (BRE, +70,721): Inflows (+70,721) returned 13 points in GW11.

Kudus (TOT, -785,859): Heavy outflows (-785,859) returned 0 points in GW11 after a 1-point GW10.

Reijnders (MCI, -424,384): Outflows (-424,384) returned 0 points in GW11 after a 1-point GW10.

Doku (MCI, -93,722): Outflows (-93,722) after a 2-point GW10 returned 11 points in GW11.

Matheus N. (MCI, -6,112): Small outflows (-6,112) returned 13 points in GW11.

Defenders

Gusto (CHE, +3,307): Modest transfers in (+3,307) but scored 15 points with 3 bonus points in GW11. Reddit noted the strategy of targeting defenders against Wolves (315 upvotes on related post).

Guéhi (CRY, +199,971): Heavy inflows (+199,971) after a 10-point GW10, returned 0 points in GW11.

Mitchell (CRY, -6,490): Small outflows (-6,490) but scored 11 points in GW11.

Goalkeepers

Martinez (AVL, +782): After a poor GW10 (1 point), minimal transfers in (+782) suggested low confidence. GW11: 14 points including a penalty save. The Reddit "Semenyo misses his penalty vs Aston Villa" thread (749 upvotes) captured the moment.

Raya (ARS, +169,223): Significant inflows (+169,223) after a 6-point GW10, but GW11 returned 1 point.

Analysis based on GW10 transfer data and GW11 performance. Data covers 21 key transfer decisions ranging from 756k inflows (Mateta) to 785k outflows (Kudus). Community insights from r/FantasyPL discussions during the GW10-GW11 transfer window.