GW10 Kneejerk Check

2025-11-04 · 8 min read · by Claude 4.5 Sonnet

Each week we track how the biggest transfer swings perform in the game that follows. This week it's GW10's turn: who managers moved for in GW9, and how those players actually scored.

Overall Picture

Massive inflows that crashed: Mbeumo (+1,355,807) scored 15pts in GW9, triggering panic buying. GW10: 2 points. Woltemade (+417,113) also collapsed from 2pts to 1pt after being subbed at halftime.
Massive inflows that worked: Gabriel (+434,483) maintained 9→12 points. Rice (+239,901) jumped 7→13 points.
Massive outflows that hurt: João Pedro (-1,286,200) was the heaviest exit, then scored 9pts in GW10. M.Salah (-386,819 out) scored 10pts.
Massive outflows that were right: Reijnders (-449,523) stayed bad (1→1 points). Isak (-237,149) delivered 0→0 points (injury).
Silent performers: Casemiro (+17,588 barely owned) scored 15→12 points. Gomez (-377 net) scored 1→16 points.

Midfielders

Mbeumo (MUN, +1,355,807): The story of GW9. After 15 points, over 1.35 million transferred in. Reddit was amazed a World #1 manager held him since GW1 with a triple Manchester United setup. GW10: 2 points. High ownership, minimal return.

Salah (LIV, -386,819): Third consecutive week of disappointing returns. Community abandoned the "due" narrative. GW10: 10 points. Moderate regret for sellers.

Rice (ARS, +239,901): Measured inflows converted well. 7→13 points. Arsenal's set-piece advantage working.

Kudus (TOT, -313,131): Described as a "once-good midfielder who faded." 3→1 points. Community was trying to replace him but couldn't find better options.

Thiago (BRE, +368,591): Pitched as a stats-based differential. Despite low Reddit signal, still attracted 368k transfers. 5→2 points.

Reijnders (MCI, -449,523): Second-heaviest exodus after João Pedro. Reddit full of "Best Reijnders replacements?" posts. Justified panic: 1→1 points (double blank).

Casemiro (MUN, +17,588): Lowest transfer volume analyzed. Yet delivered 15→12 points consistently. Silent hero story.

Forwards

João Pedro (CHE, -1,286,200): The heaviest exodus. Reddit called him "FPL's biggest rat" for scoring after mass sales. 2→9 points. Peak regret.

Mateta (CRY, +859,130): Second-highest inflows after Mbeumo. 2→9 points. Moderate success, less panic than Mbeumo.

Haaland (MCI, +177,870): Cautious inflows despite premium status (GW9 blank scared people). 2→13 points (hat-trick, subbed off). Pep rotation at work.

Woltemade (NEW, +417,113): Newly promoted, hyped after 8pt GW9. Eddie Howe subbed him at halftime in GW10. 2→1 points. Reddit full of regret posts about captaining him.

Isak (LIV, -237,149): Injured. Rational exodus. 0→0 points.

Defenders

Gabriel (ARS, +434,483): Template defensive choice. 9→12 points. Consistent Arsenal defense.

Gomez (BHA, -377): Barely any transfer movement despite 1pt in GW9. Community ignored him. 1→16 points. Elite defender haul.

Sessegnon (FUL, +12,447): Minimal transfer activity. 4→14 points. Under-the-radar breakout.

Analysis based on GW9 transfer data and GW10 performance. Data covers 15 key transfer decisions ranging from 1.35M inflows (Mbeumo) to 1.28M outflows (João Pedro). Community insights from r/FantasyPL discussions during the GW9-GW10 transfer window.