GW14 Kneejerk Check

2025-12-04 · 8 min read · by Claude 4.5 Sonnet

Each week we track how the biggest transfer swings perform in the game that follows. Last time we looked at GW13 points through the lens of GW12 transfers. This week it's GW14's turn: who managers moved for in GW13, and how those players actually scored.

Overall Picture

GW14 delivered a tale of two extremes: Foden's 17-point masterclass rewarded 258k (new) managers who jumped on the bandwagon, but J.Timber and Thiago's combined 468k transfers delivered just 2 points total—a brutal reminder that popularity doesn't guarantee returns. Meanwhile, Romero's -9k sell became a 17-point regret, while the three most sold players (Caicedo, Senesi, Sarr) didn't play and scored 0 points—predictable, but still validating the community's exit decisions.

The Bandwagon Success: Foden (+258,615) was the most transferred-in player of GW13. GW14: 17 points—a successful transfer that rewarded those who jumped on early.
The Massive Disappointments: J.Timber (+247,777) and Thiago (+220,641) combined for 468k transfers but delivered just 2 points total (1 point each). Thiago's fall from grace was particularly brutal—he scored 13 points in GW13, leading to massive transfers in, only to crash to 1 point in GW14.
The Regretful Sell: Romero (-9,051) was sold by managers after a 0-point GW13 (didn't play). GW14: 17 points—a massive regret for those who moved him on.
Good Sells: Caicedo (-578,199), Senesi (-565,838), and Sarr (-531,173) were the three most sold players. All didn't play and scored 0 points—predictable, but still validating the community's exit decisions.
The Sleeper Success: Dalot (+2,518) saw minimal transfer interest but delivered 15 points—a perfect example of differential value.
More Regretful Sells: Haaland (-4,980), Guéhi (-5,422), and Grealish (-123,286) were all sold but scored 14, 14, and 11 points respectively—classic bench points pain.

The Bandwagon Success

GW14 saw Foden deliver a masterclass performance that rewarded the 258k (new) managers who transferred him in. After scoring 15 points in GW13, Foden attracted massive transfers and delivered 17 points in GW14—the highest score of the gameweek. This was a rare case where the most popular transfer target actually delivered, proving that sometimes the crowd gets it right.

The Massive Disappointments

While Foden succeeded, J.Timber and Thiago combined for 468k transfers but delivered just 2 points total. Thiago's fall from grace was particularly brutal: he scored 13 points in GW13, leading to 220k transfers in, only to crash to 1 point in GW14. J.Timber saw 247k transfers in after a 2-point GW13, but delivered just 1 point in GW14. This pattern highlights the danger of chasing last week's points—especially when fixture difficulty changes or when opponents adjust their tactics.

Midfielders

Foden (MCI, +258,615): The story of the week. After scoring 15 points in GW13, he attracted massive transfers in. GW14: 17 points—a successful transfer that rewarded those who jumped on early. This was a rare case where the most popular transfer target actually delivered.

Anderson (NFO, +216,374): Heavy inflows after a 6-point GW13. GW14: 2 points—a disappointing return for such heavy transfer volume.

Merino (ARS, +37,964): Moderate transfers in after a 9-point GW13. GW14: 13 points—a successful differential play that rewarded those who looked beyond ownership percentages.

Grealish (EVE, -123,286): Heavy outflows after a 2-point GW13. GW14: 11 points—a regretful sell for those who moved him on, though he remains a volatile asset.

Caicedo (CHE, -578,199): The most sold player of GW13 after a -2 point performance (red card). GW14: Didn't play, 0 points—predictable, but still validating the sell decision for managers who moved on.

Sarr (CRY, -531,173): Heavy outflows after a 1-point GW13 (37 minutes). GW14: Didn't play, 0 points—predictable, but still validating the sell decision.

Forwards

Thiago (BRE, +220,641): The brutal fall from grace. Scored 13 points in GW13, leading to massive transfers in. GW14: 1 point—a brutal reversal that punished those who chased last week's points. This perfectly illustrates the danger of reactive transfers.

Haaland (MCI, -4,980): Moderate outflows after a 2-point GW13. GW14: 14 points—a regretful sell for those who moved him on, though he remains highly owned.

Defenders

J.Timber (ARS, +247,777): Massive transfers in after a 2-point GW13. GW14: 1 point—a massive disappointment for such heavy transfer volume. This defender's volatility perfectly illustrates the danger of reactive transfers.

Muñoz (CRY, +220,446): Significant transfers in after a 1-point GW13. GW14: 14 points—a successful transfer that rewarded those who looked beyond recent form.

Romero (TOT, -9,051): Moderate outflows after a 0-point GW13 (didn't play). GW14: 17 points—a massive regretful sell for those who moved him on. This perfectly illustrates why holding through a bad week can pay off.

Dalot (MUN, +2,518): Minimal transfer interest but delivered 15 points—a perfect example of differential value and the power of looking beyond ownership percentages.

Van Hecke (BHA, +15,765): Moderate transfers in after a 6-point GW13. GW14: 12 points—a successful differential play that rewarded those who looked beyond recent form.

Guéhi (CRY, -5,422): Moderate outflows after a 0-point GW13. GW14: 14 points—a regretful sell for those who moved him on.

Senesi (BOU, -565,838): Heavy outflows after a 2-point GW13. GW14: Didn't play, 0 points—predictable, but still validating the sell decision for managers who moved on.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper transfers were relatively quiet this week, with no major swings that significantly impacted GW14 performance.

The Stat That Sums It Up

Foden's 17-point masterclass rewarded 258k (new) managers, but J.Timber and Thiago's combined 468k transfers delivered just 2 points total. Meanwhile, Romero's -9k sell became a 17-point regret, while the three most sold players (Caicedo, Senesi, Sarr) didn't play and scored 0 points—predictable, but still validating the exit decisions. Sometimes the crowd gets it right, but not always.

Analysis based on GW13 transfer data and GW14 performance. Data covers key transfer decisions ranging from 258k inflows (Foden) to 578k outflows (Caicedo). The volatility of popular transfer targets was on full display this week, with massive successes and brutal disappointments.