GW3 Kneejerks: How They Landed in GW4
Each week we track how the biggest transfer swings perform in the game that follows. Last time we looked at GW3 points through the lens of GW2 transfers. This week it's GW4's turn: who managers moved for in GW3, and how those players actually scored.
Overall Picture
Looking at GW3 net transfers against GW4 points:
- Heavy inflows that worked: Semenyo (+1.1M) delivered with a penalty, rewarding his new owners.
- Heavy inflows that blanked: Grealish (+1.5M), the most transferred-in player, blanked immediately after winning Player of the Month, a classic FPL trap. Isak (+543k) was another classic trap for less experienced managers, who transferred him in despite his manager hinting at limited minutes, only for him to not even make the squad.
- Heavy outflows due to injuries: Palmer (-1.3M) was the most sold player due to injury fears, but he came on as a sub to score within 5 minutes, punishing sellers.
- Other heavy outflows: Cunha (-746k) and Wood (-510k) were also heavily sold and blanked, justifying the moves.
- Punished sales: Zubimendi (-19k) and Van de Ven (-27k) were minor transfers out but delivered huge hauls of 16 and 14 points respectively.
- The Vicario Effect: Vicario (+214k) is emerging as the consensus best goalkeeper option, with strong performances and high save point potential making him a popular choice for managers looking for a reliable set-and-forget keeper. He rewarded his new owners with 8 points.
Chart Quadrants Explained
High transfers out + high points = regret
High transfers out + low points = dodged bullet
High transfers in + high points = great decisions
High transfers in + low points = ouch
Defenders
The defender transfers this week were a story of two tales. On one hand, we had Van de Ven (-27k) who punished his sellers with a massive 14-point haul. On the other hand, the most transferred-in defenders didn't deliver much, with the exception of a few low-owned gems.
Midfielders
The midfield was dominated by the Grealish (+1.5M) bandwagon, which ended in a predictable blank. The big story, however, was Palmer (-1.3M), who was sold by many due to an injury flag, only to come on and score. Zubimendi (-19k) was another case of a sold player delivering a massive haul.
Forwards
Semenyo (+1.1M) was the big winner among forwards, converting a penalty and rewarding his new owners. Isak (+543k) was a popular transfer in but his limited minutes resulted in a blank, with him not even making the squad in the end. The sales of Cunha (-746k) and Wood (-510k) were justified as both blanked.
Goalkeepers
Goalkeeper transfers are usually less dramatic, but this week saw some interesting movements. Vicario (+214k) is emerging as the consensus best goalkeeper option, with strong performances and high save point potential making him a popular choice for managers looking for a reliable set-and-forget keeper. He rewarded his new owners with 8 points. Meanwhile, Sels (-296k) was the most transferred-out goalkeeper, and he only returned 1 point, so the sellers were not punished.
Analysis based on GW3 transfer data and GW4 performance across all Premier League players. Transfer volumes represent net transfers (transfers in minus transfers out) for each player. Injury data sourced from official Premier League and club communications.