GW21 Kneejerk Check
Gameweek 21 provided a stark reminder of the volatility inherent in FPL. While some "essential" assets continued their dominance, the week was defined by a "points-chasing" trap that left over a quarter of a million managers in the mud.
TL;DR: The GW21 Takeaways
1. Brentford Dominance: The trio of Thiago, Kelleher, and Collins delivered massive hauls, rewarding early movers and tactical budget switches.
2. The "Thiaw" Punishment: Malick Thiaw's -1 point return after a 17-point haul is the season's clearest warning against chasing last week's points.
3. Insider Edge: The Ekitike "Rehab Leak" was a decisive victory for those following social media sentiment, with almost 1 million managers successfully dodging his blank.
4. The "Under-the-Radar" Explosion: Harvey Barnes and Brenden Aaronson delivered massive differential hauls, positioning themselves as the next big bandwagons.
5. Consistency vs. Variance: Bruno G. continues to thrive in his advanced role, proving that some "kneejerks" are actually sustainable tactical shifts.
Overall Picture
The transfer landscape heading into GW21 was dominated by the return of "must-have" defenders and the pursuit of explosive forwards. The data shows a clear divide between those who followed sustainable trends and those who fell for the allure of a single high-scoring gameweek.
Midfielders
- Bruno Guimarães (+320k) is the rare "kneejerk" success that actually delivered back-to-back hauls, securing 11 points in GW21.
- Harvey Barnes (-1.1k) was a classic "punish the sellers" scenario, exploding for 15 points after being a net sell in GW20.
- Brenden Aaronson (+2.9k) delivered a massive 14-point haul, marking him as the definition of a differential success for his 0.2% ownership.
- Sander Berge (-162) provided a "ghost haul" of 10 points, though his defensive profile suggests this is an outlier.
Forwards
- Igor Thiago (+563k) proved he is no "one-hit wonder," following up his GW20 hat-trick with a 12-point haul in GW21.
- Ollie Watkins (+445k) was a template disappointment, returning just 2 points for his nearly half-a-million new owners.
- Benjamin Šeško (+1.4k) emerged as a high-ceiling differential with a 13-point haul under Manchester United's new management.
- Hugo Ekitiké (-779k) vindicated nearly 1 million sellers, missing out again as the "Rehab Leak" proved to be the insider info of the season.
Defenders
- Gabriel (+693k) continued his "must-have" status, following up his return with a solid 6-point clean sheet return.
- Nathan Collins (+74k) was the defensive standout, rewarding his owners with a massive 13-point haul.
- Malick Thiaw (+257k) was the week's ultimate cautionary tale, returning -1 point and a half-time substitution after his 17-point heroics in GW20.
- Joško Gvardiol (-278k) continued to frustrate, with a complete blank (0 mins) vindicating the mass exodus. While rotation is always a factor, a recent leg injury has further clouded his short-term prospects.
- Cucurella (-151k) delivered a nightmare -3 point return in just 21 minutes, cementing his status as a "sell at all costs" asset.
Goalkeepers
- Caoimhín Kelleher (+48k) emerged as a tactical masterclass, delivering a 13-point clean sheet for his new owners.
- Alisson Becker (-16k) punished those who lost patience with a solid 10-point return.
- Senne Roefs (+133k) continues to be the go-to budget enabler, providing steady (if modest) returns as a tactical budget-saver.
Analysis based on GW20 net transfers and GW21 FPL points, with a light layer of r/FantasyPL context where it was high-signal.